Melting ice caps, temperatures break record after record: Climate change is definitely visible. But it is only a prelude.
2015 and 2016 are years of records. One is broken after the other global heat record. And those records are referred to by many as “climate change”. But rising temperatures, melting ice and summer downpours associated with flooded basements that is not climate change. It is only a harbinger of it, says climate journalist Rolf Schuttenhelm after he dug dozens of scientific papers, talked to many authoritative climate scientists and NASA temperature ranges compared with climate models and historical links between CO2 and global temperature.
This graph shows how the perceived temperature compares to the rising CO2 concentration in the atmosphere and how the recent heat records relate to four different predefined temperature trend lines: a statistical trend (the thirtieth climate average), the consensus value for CO2 climate sensitivity (which temperature is to be expected as double the amount of CO2) a temperature line that cuts the inertia of the oceans and the temperature line that draws a parallel with paleoclimate link between CO2 and global temperature, based on research into the Eocene and Pliocene (relatively warm periods of a few million years ago). Graphics: Stephan Okhuijsen. (Click to enlarge)
Aerosols
For nearly 150 years – since the Industrial Revolution – we bring people large quantities of CO2 and other greenhouse gas emissions air. And these gases will make global warming. But much of that warming is still invisible, according to the analysis of Schuttenhelm. There are several factors which mask a large portion of the global warming due to CO2. “Aerosols for example,” as Schuttenhelm tells Scientias.nl . “Small particles suspended in the air.” In part, they are derived from nature (think of salt or sand), but there are also quite a few aerosols which have been placed by people in the atmosphere (for example, think of soot). “Die aerosols reflect and block sunlight.” In this way these aerosols to be a cooling factor and they mask a part of the global warming due to CO2. “Another masking factor is the oceans. They absorb heat from the atmosphere and some of the warming will disappear in the oceans. “
Pipeline-warming
What invariably appears in climate research is that the earth is a complex system is that we are still not quite fathom. Therefore, there is much uncertainty about how the earth exact at all of these greenhouse gases will react in the atmosphere. “But one thing is certain,” as Schuttenhelm, on the basis of his analysis. “The warming we see now is only a very small part of the story.” The rest of the story he calls “global pipeline. It’s warming that awaits us. And we should not underestimate. “And the pipeline is warming to the general public, but also among policy-makers and activists even a relatively unknown concept,” Schuttenhelm finds somewhat surprised. Many still think that climate change is already unfolding on the thermometer in its full glory. “But if you think you underestimate the warming.”
“Only a reduction in the CO2 concentration can still deal with some of the pipeline-warming”
rollback CO2 concentration
That becomes clear when we consider what would happen if the CO2 concentration from now would remain constant (a far-from-our-bed-show because CO2 concentration is increasing every year). In that case, global warming may still be doubled and thus higher than the 1.5 to 2 degrees that politicians are trying to pursue. Only a reduction of the CO2 concentration can still deal with a part of the pipeline-warming, according to Schuttenhelm. A reduction of the CO2 concentration can only be achieved if we say goodbye to fossil fuels. “The greatest challenge humanity has ever faced.” If it succeeds, decreases CO2 emissions. And because the oceans continue recording for decades CO2, the CO2 concentration in the atmosphere eventually dives below 400 ppm, and a portion of the pipeline warming can probably stay where ‘it is: in the pipeline. “By lowering the concentration of CO2, we can prevent the inevitable global warming may have 1 to 2 degrees.”
But a drop in CO2 concentration seems far away. In 2015, the CO2 concentration increased even with record speed. It seems not to penetrate humanity that action must be taken. “The inertia of the climate is definitely a curse,” says Schuttenhelm. “Now we may have a little dazed by the warm-up, but it really escalates at the end of this century. It is a problem for the future. “However, that can only be solved now. “We must act on what we know now and not based on what we observe now,” Schuttenhelm concludes.
The analysis of Schuttenhelm resulted in 25 literature studies this week at Bitsofscience.org have been published. Each research zooms deeper into “climate inertia ‘or the factors that mask the warming. The investigations can be seen in here
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